Methodology

This page explains where our figures come from, how we turn them into records and comparisons, and what we do when we get something wrong.

Sources

We work from primary sources wherever they exist, in this order of preference:

1. Official documents: government budgets, legislation, parliamentary decisions, audit office reports, regulatory filings.
2. Company disclosures: annual reports, financial statements, investor presentations, filings with market regulators.
3. Official statistics: national statistics offices, central banks, international institutions.
4. Serious reporting: established news organizations, used when no primary document exists, and always attributed by name.

Every article lists its sources with links, so readers can check the figure for themselves.

What makes a record

A record is a specific, verifiable claim: the most expensive, the largest, the first to cross a threshold. Every record we publish states exactly what is being measured, and what is excluded, so that it can be tested. The definition and its exclusions appear in the closing note of each article.

We prefer records that hold under scrutiny over records that sound impressive. When a figure is the largest only under a narrow definition, we say so.

A Budget War compares two rivals on the same question, with the same yardstick applied to both. Where the two sides report figures differently, we explain the adjustment before drawing any conclusion.

Figures, currencies and adjustments

• Headline figures are expressed in US dollars, so that records from different countries can be compared.
• The original currency, the exchange rate and the date of conversion are stated in the closing note of each article.
• When comparing figures across years, we state whether they are nominal or adjusted for inflation, and which index was used.
• When we compare a figure with something else (the size of an economy, a population, another project), we name the source of that comparison too.

Estimates and unconfirmed figures

Some figures cannot be taken directly from a document. When we estimate or reconstruct a number, we mark it as an estimate, show the calculation and list its inputs. In charts, estimates are drawn differently from documented figures.

When a serious outlet reports a figure that has not been confirmed by the organization involved, we may publish it, attributed to that outlet and clearly described as unconfirmed. We do not present it as fact, and we do not ignore it.

Updates

Figures change. Budgets are revised, projects overrun, companies restate their accounts. When a figure in a published article changes, we update the article, record what changed and when, and keep the modification date honest: it changes when the figures change, not when a typo is fixed.

Budget War comparisons date quickly. Any Budget War draft older than two weeks is fully re-verified before publication.

Editorial standards

• Every article is signed. Records carry the name of the author responsible for them. Budget War comparisons are signed by The Expenditure and reviewed by both authors.
• Every article is reviewed by the other author before it is published. One works in long series, the other in the present tense, and each piece is checked and questioned from the angle its author did not start from. The byline belongs to one; the article is better for both.
• Accuracy over speed. We would rather publish later than publish a figure we have not checked.
• Independence. No company, government or organization we cover reviews, approves or influences our articles before publication. We do not accept payment for coverage.
• Separation of advertising. Any advertising is clearly labeled and kept apart from editorial content.
• No advice. We explain figures. We do not recommend investments, trades or financial decisions.
• Reader polls. Some articles include a reader poll. Polls ask for opinions or predictions only; results never alter the figures we report.
• Use of tools. Our authors may use software, including AI tools, for research, calculation and drafting. Every figure is checked against its source by the author before publication, and the author is responsible for the final text.

Corrections

We make mistakes, and we correct them in the open.

• If a published figure is wrong, we correct it in the article and add a dated correction note at the foot explaining what was wrong and what it has been changed to.
• We do not silently rewrite figures.
• If a correction changes the central claim of an article, including whether a record still stands, the correction note says so at the top of the article.
• Minor fixes that do not affect meaning (spelling, formatting, a broken link) are made without a note.

To report an error, write to [email protected] with the article, the figure and, if possible, the source that contradicts it. We review every report.